[TheCowboy]

> What would governments/policy makers actually be able to do with any of this data? Not to denigrate it as a step forward, but I'm having trouble seeing much practical impact at all.

You can look at how beneficial hurricane forecasting has been in saving lives, which has been increasing in accuracy for longer lead times. It's very useful to know something bad is likely going to happen somewhere so you can move resources and evacuate people.

> So 14 true positives and 8 false positives, which means the positive predictive value is not great, less than 65%.

This actually seems huge to me unless we already are hitting close to 65%. I'm not sure how this wouldn't be a big deal compared to what I understand the status quo to be (unpredictable).

Of course, if the forecasts are just a couple minutes out at best, then that's way less useful. But at the very least an emergency alert could be sent out so people can get to safety which could help.

[bamboozled]

You can watch a hurricane arrive though, it's much, much more predictable, and even then they change course quite often last minute.

[TheCowboy]

It's definitely not as simple as "watching a hurricane arrive" and required a lot of concerted effort and technological progress to get where we are.

And, no, you very much do not want to be on the coast (look up storm surge) or anywhere watching a hurricane arrive.

I also mentioned it because the point is that it's clear evidence that forecasts can save lives and are therefore useful.

[bamboozled]

Of course, but it's a much easier thing to observe than the build up of pressure and tolerances of a tectonic plate.