[aguaviva]

Barring a major disaster, by 2100 we will have a vibrant Earth + off-Earth resource ecosystem via machines/AI.

Sounds like climate change is already, and major military conflict/genocide very soon will be, basically entirely solved problems in your book.

[Nevermark]

I don’t think they are solved, but not bottlenecks for beyond Earth, post biological life.

They still matter.

How long intelligent life depends or cares about a “natural” Earth biosphere is impossible to predict. “We” will for a while. But for how long?

Wars and any destructive conflict will always matter. They increase existential risk for individuals and collectives, and waste resources.

We are used to casually equating the future of the Earth, the biosphere, intelligence, civilization, humanity, our systems & communities, and each of us as individuals.

But they are all different things, whose trajectories are increasingly separating.

[aguaviva]

Well that's my definition of a "vibrant Earth" -- namely, having those problems solved first, before we go out and start wrecking the rest of the universe.

"A basically fucked Earth, but with the surviving elites continuing to party on as usual" by 2100 is where we seem to be headed on our current trajectory.

[Nevermark]

You prescribe forbidden lines of progress.

But profitable problems get solved when they are solvable.

And advances in different areas are increasingly non-separable.

—

In any case, space resource extraction & manufacturing will replace harmful counterparts on Earth.

And provide vast wealth, sustainable materials, energy, and other advancements that could enable serious Earth greening & rehabilitation efforts.

Better to welcome & harness increasing options, than command the tides to stop.

[Ekaros]

Military conflict might help a lot. Enslave the population in misery so we can get those off planet resources and weapon platforms to fight better.