Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by thaumasiotes 5115 days ago
How could the strategy here be anything other than "pick 0"?

Even the other degenerate strategy of "pick something which is like negative infinity" is a guaranteed loser, and it's only interesting if you assume everyone else will pick positive numbers (which your web app specifies, though your problem statement doesn't).

2 comments

I had 10 minutes to create the poll before the library closed...I definitely could have done a better job describing the problem, you're right.

Each person was told to pick a number between 0 and 100

The number I would pick would be dependent on who else is taking the poll, how much credit do you give them, etc

I'm in my phone now with a low battery, otherwise I'd type

The Wikipedia entry mentions this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guess_2/3_of_the_average

But one of the problems with selecting a strategy is assuming that everyone will act perfectly rationally. This is hardly ever the case.