[pizza234]

> In 2022, the split among GMTK participants was [...] This year [...] 37% Godot to 43% Unity:

Jam and commercial games have different requirements.

> I think 2025 is the year that Godot effectively replaces Unity for new developers.

For game jams, possibly. Unity and Unreal have still a very large market share for commercial games.

[diggan]

> Jam and commercial games have different requirements.

Indeed, but it's a clear signal that something is shifting. In jam game environment, the shift is obviously faster, as the timeframes are different. But you extrapolate that things will change for mainstream games as well, it'll just take way longer time.

It would be interesting to see the number of jam games being done at Unity when it first appears, although I think the whole "game jam" thingy wasn't as big then as it is now. But maybe that could give some indication on how long it'll take before we see a difference in mainstream game engine marketshare.

[bodge5000]

The 'thing', be it a game engine or whatever else, of choice for small projects often end up taking over for commercial products too, devs bring their favourite tools into their work and slowly corporate adoption of it grows. It happened with Slack, it's very quickly happening with Blender, hell it even happened with Unity itself I'm not sure I'd be as optimistic as OP in terms of how quickly Godot will take over Unity, but I do believe it will happen, or at least something similar

[Widdershin]

This is the sort of thing people said about Blender for a long time, and my understanding is that it’s now often used in commercial contexts.

Not a given by any means, but it’s happened before and it will happen again.

[pathless]

Commercial developers and jam participants want the same thing. And even if they weren't much alike, this is still a huge indicator of trajectory.

[01HNNWZ0MV43FF]

Yeah but people use the tools they know. Commercial may follow