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by NearAP 658 days ago
They have a fixed methodology and they also revise it as data comes in - usually after the report has been released for one or more months (see [1], [2])

1. https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-2/revisions-to-jobs-numb...

2. https://www.politifact.com/article/2019/sep/12/revisions-job...

1 comments

Your counterpoint presents citations from the year 2019 and circa 2012. OP there posted that they were now cheesing the numbers "for years" - seems to me "for years" might cover the range 2020 (COVID) - 2024, but not your citations. Anything that says under the post-covid administration they aren't cheesing the job numbers?

This article: https://recruitonomics.com/revisions-to-the-job-numbers-may-... Posits that indeed during recessions, most revisions are negative, and the reverse is true for economic booms.

So if we think maybe there's some kind of recession in the 2020-2024 time range it might be expected to see a series of downward revisions.

The more tender point is whether these ongoing downward revisions are simply the nature of the beast, or if someone is pressing their thumb and cheesing the numbers a bit to give the impression of no-recession. This is a tender point because some of the unemployment metrics are sus i.e. "people who have been looking for a job for 1-9 weeks, but not more, and it's a full moon on a Tuesday". The more that diverges from (100% - <Definitely employed %>), the more that definition of unemployed is cheesing it. But if the numbers are getting tuned up over here, it's natural to suspect the same party is tuning up numbers over there too.