[edg5000]

In the last 100 years, software adoption went from non-existant to being used everywhere, so even through programmer productivity was increasing, we stil always needed more programmers. But maybe the growth of programmer productivity will be higher than the growth of software demand at some point?

[globular-toast]

If "programmer productivity" increases then I'll spend 90% of my time thinking and talking to domain experts instead of 80%. Being able to write executable software is not and never has been the problem. But, sure, if it ever becomes easy to write working software then you can expect programmer salaries to fall precipitously, at least to the level of nurses or any other occupation that requires training but essentially anyone can do.

[edg5000]

Interesting, for me, it has been the opposite. You spend some time identifying the problem, meet with a few customers (if it's your own business) or have a chat with your employer. Once you get an idea of what is needed you get to work. I'd say 90% of the time is spent implementing for me.

[globular-toast]

What do you mean by "implementation", though? Notice I said 80% of my time includes thinking. In other words, only around 20% is typing, which is the only thing LLMs help with. For me, most of my time "implementing" is thinking.