[baazaa]

The AGW case should have been that it's easy to observe the earth is absorbing more energy than it's emitting, easy to demonstrate that this is due to greenhouse gasses, and it doesn't depend on complex modelling but rather basic physics.

Instead the atmospheric and oceanographic modellers managed to identify their extremely fallible models with climate change as a thesis, and now half the population trusts those models far too much, and the other half is far too skeptical of global warming generally.

[HPsquared]

The problem is how to model the humongous influence of water vapour, albedo and cloud cover. There are so many feedbacks and complex dynamics there, it's not as simple as if we simply had a "nitrogen, oxygen and CO2" atmosphere.