[grishka]

IMO not quite. Here's how I see it:

- Generic utility apps, the kind that you would search by what they do, like an audio player, an image converter, or a file manager — yes, it works for them like you say.

- Those free to play mobile games everyone knows and loves (no). They buy stupid amount of ads to get people to install them. They may get some installations thanks the app stores themselves, e.g. from the top charts, assuming they get high enough there. So app stores do play a role in their visibility, but a limited one. And this is where it ends.

- Apps for IRL services, like getting around (taxi/scooter rental/car sharing), or ordering food, or many other similar things. They get popular because people see their logos around them all the dang time, often together with QR codes with download links. They also often buy ads. Sometimes people recommend them to each other. App stores don't play any significant role for these.

- Apps for something you already use. Like your home utilities, or your bank, or some sort of "smart" device you got, or loyalty programs. Again, you don't discover these thanks to app stores, you usually install them because that company says "we have an app, get it here".

- Social/collaboration apps, the kind that are useless without people you know also using them. No one searches app stores for "social media" or "messaging" or "calls". People recommend them to each other. People see that their friends are on there and get on there too. Again, app stores don't do much here.

[998244353]

You're right that discoverability is not really the issue.

However, I still agree with the GP that if you are not on the Play Store, you lose most of your installations.

If someone has already discovered your app and can't find it on the Play Store, they are more likely to assume that it's not supported on their phone, unavailable in their region or whatever. Even if you explicitly tell them to just download the APK, most people will not do that. Keep in mind that the average user probably doesn't even know that you can install apps from outside the Play Store. Or even if they guess that it's probably possible, they might well perceive it as complicated and sketchy.

[grishka]

I don't understand how does one come to this conclusion. In my own experience, most people will do what you ask them to do as long as your instructions are clear enough. Downloading and installing an apk on an Android phone is no different than downloading and running an exe on a Windows PC, which is something people do all the time. No one perceives Play Store as inherently more trustworthy. I know many non-tech people who have and use sideloaded apps on their phones.

Edit: it might be different for younger generations who grew up with modern smartphones.

[Zak]

Epic Games can probably tell you exactly how many fewer people install an app that's not on the Play Store on their Android devices. That information might even be in public documents from their lawsuit against Google. That they were able to sue and win suggests it's large.

[rvnx]

+ Epic has visibility and audience already. So imagine if you are a developer without that.

[danhor]

While people don't discover these apps on the play store, they will hear of the App, search on the App/Play Store and install it. If they can't find it by typing the app name into the search bar there, they won't install it.

I doubt most users will, even when given the link to an .apk, install it. Either because they are discouraged by the alarming prompts (in my opinion a tradeoff that is unfortunately worth it) or because they get lost.

[account42]

> - Apps for IRL services, like getting around (taxi/scooter rental/car sharing), or ordering food, or many other similar things. They get popular because people see their logos around them all the dang time, often together with QR codes with download links. They also often buy ads. Sometimes people recommend them to each other. App stores don't play any significant role for these.

Except if let's say Uber quit the app store then users would still first search there and many of them will install the first result which will now be a competitior since Google is allergic to showing no results if there is no relevant answer.

For everything else there is the issue of trust. Google does everything they can to make installing apps outside the app store feel like you are doing something dangerous.