[jalman]

great point. I think the AI scientist is already a winner. If the likelihood of false outcome is FNR+FPR, then machine would fail 0.7 and humans 0.69 times. Humans do win nominally. In terms of costs humans loose. For every FPR 0.31-0.17 = 0.14 you spend additionally, you'd gain FNR 0.52-0.39 = 0.13. The paper production costs discrepancy is at least factor 100. The value of the least useful research typically drives factor two or more benefit in comparison to production and validation costs. So the final balance is 0.014 to 0.36 -> x25 gain in favor of AI.