[Aurornis]

I don't find this article very compelling. The core argument comes from a single 2018 paper from a single author who used IV regressions to claim that increased consolidation of homebuilders is consistent with a reduced amount of new construction.

The argument in this article is that small homebuilders got caught in the credit crunch and had to flip their lots to the mega builders, who maintained access to capital and credit that the small players didn't have. So now the big players are hoarding land and not building on it to control the market.

I can believe that a credit crunch has cooled the construction market. Nothing about that would be surprising. I have a harder time believing that the major home builders have bought up so much land that nobody else can build anything, leaving them to control the market price of houses by artificially limiting supply.

Anecdotally, the most expensive housing markets are in cities where most of the buildable land has already been used by something. This is where these supposed land-hoarding mega builders would have the least influence. In my experience there are a lot of affordable houses being built in smaller cities and in the outskirts of major cities, but the demand just isn't there. More people want to live in dense and desirable locations and they're willing to pay a premium for it.