Why yes, if there was an algorithm known good enough to make 4096 bit keys necessary then 4096 bit keys would be necessary. But there isn't and there has been little progress for a long time now.
> But there isn't and there has been little progress for a long time now.
publicly. The algorithm side and the hardware side are really really different because we can be pretty sure that the NSA doesn't have a giant super computer that is either dramatically more efficient than commercially available computers, or that uses more than say 1% of US electricity consumption. On the algorithm side, we know that the NSA employs a decent number of number theory people, and given the way that math research progresses, it's pretty easy to imagine that one of those people has found a slight algorithmic improvement over public state of the art. CFRAC was invented in the 1970s. QS invented in the 1980s. The NFS was the 1990s with some improvements in the 2000s. If we go another 50 years or so with no progress, it maybe starts to be reasonable to believe that there isn't a secret algorithm that's better, but with 5 improvements in the last 50 years, it seems pretty likely that there could be 1 more that has been found but not published.
publicly. The algorithm side and the hardware side are really really different because we can be pretty sure that the NSA doesn't have a giant super computer that is either dramatically more efficient than commercially available computers, or that uses more than say 1% of US electricity consumption. On the algorithm side, we know that the NSA employs a decent number of number theory people, and given the way that math research progresses, it's pretty easy to imagine that one of those people has found a slight algorithmic improvement over public state of the art. CFRAC was invented in the 1970s. QS invented in the 1980s. The NFS was the 1990s with some improvements in the 2000s. If we go another 50 years or so with no progress, it maybe starts to be reasonable to believe that there isn't a secret algorithm that's better, but with 5 improvements in the last 50 years, it seems pretty likely that there could be 1 more that has been found but not published.