[jerlam]

Not doubting your experience, but you've had the phone for less than a year and haven't had a major Android version update.

You are 1/7th of the way of your total support period. If you can say you have no problems in 2030, that would be much stronger evidence.

[ascorbic]

Sure, though in the past when I've had problems with phones they've either manifested within the first few months, or it's been 4-5 years down the line when I'm fine with replacing it. I'm not being complacent: it's true I've not had a major OS upgrade yet, and this is of course anecdotal. My main point is that I'm really happy with my first 10 months with the phone, and would recommend it so far.

[sigzero]

Wow, talk about an unrealistic expectation. 2030? lol

[zepearl]

> That means your Pixel 8 and Pixel 8 Pro will be supported all the way into 2030

https://store.google.com/intl/en_uk/ideas/articles/newest-pi...

[dmix]

Some stats from another site

- As of 2023, the global average replacement cycle length for a smartphone is 3.6 years.

- 40.4% of people upgrade their smartphone every two to three years.

- The majority of people (75.0%) upgrade their handset due to issues with their battery life shortening over time.

[morsch]

For the majority of Android phones, two to three years was also the length of time you got software updates of you bought the phone right when it was released, if you were lucky. I would have loved to pay somebody 80 EUR to replace the battery in my Samsung S10, but that wasn't an option since it was EOL.

Upgrading a phone also doesn't mean that the old phone goes to the bin or the new phone wasn't used before. Lots of people upgrade from one hand-me-down phone to another, others buy on the secondary market. Longer software support also extends the lifetime and viability of that market.

Sure, eventually the battery dies and the screen breaks. For many devices it's cost-effective to have somebody repair it. Having user serviceable batteries would make it much easier still.

[WA]

That is Google‘s stated goal of long term support.

[practicemaths]

People trade in cars every 3 years. I imagine it's similar to phones. Plus phone battery life does degrade pretty heavily over time and heavy use.

[epolanski]

I trade them when the old one breaks.

Phones stopped having any meaningful reason to update since a decade.

My 2019 Xiaomi Note 8 Pro is still perfect and capable of answering posts on HN like this, going on YouTube or answering WhatsApp. Pics are also great and battery life is too.

[practicemaths]

Yes, your personal experience is not the same for the average consumer class. Which is the majority of phones & cars are designed for and sold to.

[epolanski]

It's actually the same of the average consumer class, people are updating phones less and less, as there's really little reasons to do so. New phones are marginally better, at best, but not in any meaningful way.

[practicemaths]

Another user posted in above

"As of 2023, the global average replacement cycle length for a smartphone is 3.6 years."

I'm not disagreing on a technical level. I agree. I use a pretty cheap ass phone myself that I bought off the rack.

I think it's clear though that phone makers and telecom companies are more than happy to sell people a new one every few years and intend to continue doing that.

[dogsledsleddog]

A subculture trades in cars every 3 years, as in they are resold on the used market for another 13 years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Car_longevity

[StevePerkins]

Is that really a large subculture, or is that mostly car rental places cycling vehicles through their fleet?

The rental companies typically buy vehicles from the manufacturer at such a volume discount, that they're able to flip them onto the used market a few years later and come out even with taxes benefits factored in.

[ascorbic]

There are also private and corporate leases. In the UK at least 20-30% of new car sales are leases (it's a tax efficient way to get a new car, particularly EVs), and these usually run for about 3 years, after which they're sold off at trade auction.

[practicemaths]

Do those same cars have 0 problems with them and not require any scheduled maintenance in those 13 years?

[dogsledsleddog]

You are talking about the auto market like Japan didn't come in and devastate Detroit. No problems means things about TCO to 16 years and how that plays out.

Mid tier Android makers that couldn't secure chipset support beyond 3 years began to realize they have to exit the market a couple years ago, a guaranteed outcome of Apple fixing their story long enough for resale values to impact purchase decisions.

[romwell]

>People trade in cars every 3 years.

Looks at their 2010 Honda Fit in the parking lot

Umm, yeah, some people do.

[practicemaths]

Yes, but the automakers and car salesman aren't selling to you.

[romwell]

>Yes, but the automakers and car salesman aren't selling to you.

Guess where the trade-in value ultimately comes from.

Something tells me it's a factor in how many people are able to trade their car in every three years or so.

[gen220]

I don't think it's an unrealistic expectation for a hunk of bleeding-edge electronics that costs ~$1k and you interact with for a couple hours each day at minimum.

I've had an iPhone XS since 2018/09 (equidistant to 2030 from today), and have had no significant issues – my upgrade cycle is ~6 years, there is at least one of us!