[nradov]

That sounds good, until it leaves NASA entirely dependent on SpaceX as a single supplier. For better or worse, there don't seem to be any other companies (old or new) that are able to successfully execute on huge fixed-price contracts.

[nordsieck]

> For better or worse, there don't seem to be any other companies (old or new) that are able to successfully execute on huge fixed-price contracts.

Northrup Grumman seems to be doing a pretty good job with Cygnus. And ULA seems to be doing alright with NSSLv2 (although it sounds like they may have had to give up a launch or two due to Vulcan delays).

[Gud]

No, but there will be. Besides SpaceX there is also Rocketlab who has a CEO rocket nerd in charge.

[kaliqt]

So that's two nerds total.

[Ajedi32]

Stoke Space also has a pretty huge rocket nerd at the helm[1]. And of course there's Blue Origin (even though they seem to be taking forever). The industry has been flourishing lately, though (with the possible exception of Blue Origin) it'll be a long time before these younger companies produce anything capable of rivaling Falcon 9, let alone Starship.

[1]: https://everydayastronaut.com/stoke-space/

[nordsieck]

> And of course there's Blue Origin (even though they seem to be taking forever)

Ever since Bezos installed David Limp as CEO, it seems like they've been able to ship stuff. It's hard to know if he was set up for success by his predecessor, but their older no press policy prevented anyone from knowing it, or if he changed the company culture for the better.

Regardless, it appears like Blue Origin is likely to launch New Glenn this year. Or, at least the DoD thinks it's likely enough that they agreed to onramp Blue Origin to NSSLv3 (pending a successful launch).

> it'll be a long time before these younger companies produce anything capable of rivaling Falcon 9

I don't think it'll be that long.

* Blue Origin's New Glenn should launch in 2024-2025.

* RocketLab's Neutron should launch in 2025-2027.

* Relativity's Terran R should launch in 2026-2028.

That's remarkably soon.

Of course, as you point out, Starship should be operational quite soon. It'll be exciting to see how things shake out.

My personal opinion is that SpaceX will move to payload based pricing, somewhat akin to their current rideshare pricing. I'm just pulling numbers out of the air, but something like $10m + $3m/tonne. That way they can compete for smaller payloads while also being paid appropriately for launching really heavy stuff. However it ends up, I'm sure pricing will be heavily influenced by the competition when it comes out.

[Gud]

True, I'm also stoked(sorry) about stoke space. One thing I really like about Rocket Lab though, is how diversified they are.

[wmf]

Sierra and Blue Origin are coming.