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by cjbillington
669 days ago
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FWIW, the fact that the recession market on Manifold doesn't resolve until the end of 2025 (to give the NBER time to declare a recession) limits how low people will push the probability. I'm the biggest NO holder, and my credence is closer to 10%, but the rate of return isn't attractive enough to bet it lower. This is somewhat asymmetric, since bettors who expect a recession also expect an earlier payout. I made this derivative market to try to address the issue somewhat, but not much trading yet: https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-manifold-pric... |
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