[maxglute]

From wiki of potential 100-150 year Nankai megathrust earthquakes event (JP predictions 70%-80% chance within next 30 years)

>The Japanese government estimates that a major earthquake on the Nankai Trough would cause 169.5 trillion yen in direct damage and 50.8 trillion yen in economic losses for the following year. A study by the Japan Society of Civil Engineers in 2018 estimated that the long-term damage from the earthquake could result in 1,240 trillion yen in economic losses over a 20-year period.[11] It is predicted that the economic damage is likely to be 10 times higher than for the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami.[12] A death toll as high as 230,000 has been suggested for such an event.[13]

Early warning / evacuation can reduce casualty by 80%+. 1240T yen = 8.5T USD. 1.5T direct+next year loss = 40% of GDP, with another 160% over next 19 years. Stupendous numbers.