[marginalia_nu]

I had this moment during the prelude to the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

First the experts were confindent that the troop movements in Russia were just posturing and saber rattling, there's no way they'll do anything.

Next, once they'd entered Ukraine, it would be over in a few weeks. The Russians would win. When the Russians were getting their asses kicked and it looked really bad, the Ukrainians would win by the end of the summer. Next it would be over by the winter. Next the russians would run out of materiel soon. Next the russians would run out of men soon.

They confidently made every prediction except the multi-year trench war that actually ensued.

[_rrnv]

Virtually no true expert whose predictions are accurate shares their opinion with the public, because they know what their words are really worth. Virtually all news experts are clueless placeholders put there to support the daily narrative.

[jimbokun]

But that's punditry, not news.

News would be accurately reporting on where the Russian troops were and what they were doing at that moment. News isn't supposed to include prediction. That's why Opinion sections were traditionally kept separate from the rest of the paper.

[Phiwise_]

News would have refused to put sugar on its porridge, too.

[marginalia_nu]

Technically yeah, but it's also what the news looks like today. By volume, it's mostly speculation, gossip, and politically flavored analysis.