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by xrd 686 days ago
Can anyone speak to whether public statistics are accurate or not? Can anyone reassure me that these statistics are impossible to manipulate?

I have a suspicion these statistics are only accurate and available when it is convenient for the people responsible for providing those statistics.

Isn't it the case that the police are responsible for providing statistics to the public? During the pandemic and during the George Floyd protests, there were political reasons for gathering information and using to show that A) "crime is up!" or B) "crime is actually still historically low!"

A few years ago, I was frustrated about the reporting on these statistics, and went to a variety of police web sites.

Some of the websites said: "Because of the pandemic, we are so overwhelmed by crime and everything, we cannot provide current statistics!" And, other sites said "Because of the pandemic, we are so overwhelmed by crime and everything, we cannot provide past statistics!" And, some websites just completely won't load. If a police department does not want to pay their IT person, or the company that provides it can't get their act together, the website will be down and you cannot get information directly from the police.

If you have a category of crime that is high, the police need to either fix that problem, or fix the numbers. Right?

I know that some sources of information come from the FBI. But, aren't those numbers often provided by the police?

And, in certain parts of the country were in favor of defunding the police, and certain parts of the country are filled with "Blue Lives Matters" people. Won't the police in the defund areas want to show crime is up? Won't those in regions with different sensibilities want to show their policing works? Can anyone tell me why this isn't a problem?

It is anecdotal, but aren't there areas of certain cities where the citizens have stopped reporting crimes because the police don't come anymore? How is that reflected in the numbers, if at all?

Can anyone else see a big gaping hole in how these stats are collected and used? Is there standardization across the country about these statistics?

1 comments

I'm sure, like anything, there is incentive and opportunity to manipulate the numbers. but I don't think it would be easy to do without being found out. Police precincts do a lot of paperwork and behind any statistics, they are going to need the paperwork for individual cases to back up the numbers they submit. and if they are going to under report, they will need to destroy a lot of paperwork. but my intuition is that while leadership may want to under report crime, cops will usually want to report as much as possible to prove that they are busy and necessary. so the balance likely gets us acceptably accurate numbers.
I just don't buy that it evens out.

For example, go here:

https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crim...

Look at Florida: "The 2022 estimated Crime statistics for Florida are based on data received from 403 of 758 participating law enforcement agencies in the state that year."

That's 54% participation.

Look at Oregon: "The 2022 estimated Crime statistics for Oregon are based on data received from 215 of 236 participating law enforcement agencies in the state that year."

That's 91% participation.

Why don't police departments in Florida report? Why aren't Floridians demanding that reporting? Florida has incarceration rates double of Oregon by the way. Do Floridians not want to look at that uncomfortable fact?

Portland has been pilloried in the news the last few years as the example of liberalism gone wrong. But, IMHO, liberals are asking questions about law enforcement, and when you report fully, there are going to be examples of wrong doing. If you just don't report, then it is easy to hide.

A few days ago I had to collect the body of my cat from the Polk County Florida sheriff's department so I called to make sure I had the hours of operation right. I was on hold and told over and over "Crime is at a 50 year low!" It felt like propaganda, and it feels even more so like propaganda after seeing the above.

That might be a problem for state-level reporting but I'm not sure it really maps on to the city of San Francisco very well, tbf
Good point. Thanks.