[throwaway290]

Lawyers or real engineers can only push a button and still have secure jobs because they have licenses/certifications/boards and liabilities with consequences. There is no such thing in programming. (Even though our mistakes can and do also lead to real people dying)

> it feels like a long time since I did more than convert someone else's Figma (or Adobe XD, or Photoshop document) into code, and glue it to a pre-existing API

That looks like webdev, that's like a minuscule part of all programming in question.

> automated away a decade ago, without LLMs.

I think LLMs is the worst part of it because literally what programmers do is used against them. It's like taxi drivers used to train self driving cabs to automate themselves out of jobs, except imagine self driving cars actually worked and there are no unions or protective gov regulation and taxi drivers all cheer for this because each thinks the whole firing and pay reduction is only for someone else not themselves:)

[ben_w]

> That looks like webdev, that's like a minuscule part of all programming in question.

Mobile, even smaller.

> It's like taxi drivers used to train self driving cabs to automate themselves out of jobs

I was talking to a taxi driver pre-pandemic (from his passenger seat) who was enthusiastic about FSD even though it would end his career.

And if FSD AI don't perform some of their training by trying to predict what all the other cars will do, they're missing out on a huge opportunity.

More broadly, I think this pattern applies to all labour: surveillance is easy, humanoid robots exist.

[throwaway290]

FSD is moot because it didn't work in the end.

> this pattern applies to all labour

Yup, that was the point of the taxi analogy.

It is why unions/gov protections/certifications exist... accountability and keeping society from unraveling

[ben_w]

> FSD is moot because it didn't work in the end.

"Work" isn't Boolean — the self drive AI does exist, just not well enough to do everything and even the "F" (though the Waymo AI seems to be?)

The same quality may be worse or better in specific roles, but AI isn't stationary.

> It is why unions/gov protections/certifications exist... accountability and keeping society from unraveling

No, but it is why the Amish and literal communism existed — but in the latter case, they weren't opposed to the automation itself just the unfairness of using profit to make workers redundant.

Unions are more about fair pay for fair work, and safe conditions in that work. Certifications are consumer protection.

[throwaway290]

Dunno much about the Amish. Communism was (in practice a power grab, but in theory) very much in favor of automation. Hyping LLM training without licensing original works and calling for banning copyright and patents is what reminds me of communism a lot these days. I saw someone call it "IP communism". Let's see how well it works for innovation;)

I am not against automation too. We all used autocomplete. But it is amusing to see people sawing off the branch on which they sit, encouraging each other to do so and spitting on people who point it out.

I don't believe in communism and I think anarchocapitalism is maybe as bad as communism.

> Certifications are consumer protection.

If you think certifications are just consumer protection then you are missing big part of the picture. In the end it is protection for every side.

[ben_w]

I've only seen half the stuff you're calling "IP communism", but many are inspired by the "fully automated luxury gay space communism" meme, so sure :)

> I don't believe in communism and I think anarchocapitalism is maybe as bad as communism.

I've met both, and yup; though the communists seemed more sociable, neither could really understand that the other existed except as caricature.

> If you think certifications are just consumer protection then you are missing big part of the picture.

I was unsure if I should have written "also" in that sentence; but I didn't write "just" ;)

[throwaway290]

> fully automated luxury gay space communism

Thanks, TIL!

Communists may be sociable but being a Russian I don't have a good impression from the ideology.