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by kleton
685 days ago
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Different people could look at the same clip and assign different probabilities to P(ballot stuffer) vs P(Family ballot courier). It would depend on your Bayesians priors. If a person from a high trust society like Sweden or Finland were to see this video, they might have a prior expectation of someone being helpful. Whereas there are much lower trust societies in the world where that would not be the case. We've gone from "haven't seen evidence" to "seen evidence at probability P-prime". Trust in an electoral system is an important enough issue that this should be investigated to the same thorough degree as a capital crime. |
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