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by kbrkbr 689 days ago
I appreciate your comment and share the sentiment. Yet I think about temporarily reducing the amount of stock in my portfolio, since one of the historic recession indicators is in pre-recession territory for quite some time [1]. In any case, recessions must not go hand in hand with a bear market, and even if so, we don't know how deep it will go and for how long.

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y Click on "Max". Observe recessions in grey.

1 comments

The GDP and the number of open jobs isn't indicative of a coming recession to me. In my opinion, The FED will likely cause a recession when they start cutting rates because business will start cutting back spending in anticipation of cheaper credit. The faster they cut the shorter the recession will be.