[freedomben]

Sure it does. It doesn't mean it's impossible for long-term to be overpriced, but it is definitely a lot less likely to be significant/impactful, and if it is overpriced and experiences a correction, you're much more likely to be able to ride it out and average into a reasonable position over time. With long term you're looking for several % growth per year, over multiple years. With long term you're much less sensitive to overpricing. Short term on the other hand carries significant risk of overpricing, because you're concerned about tiny % changes over short periods of time. With volatility/risk, the length makes a big difference.

[lotsofpulp]

What you are writing is valid for investing in broad market index funds, but not for investing in individual businesses.

Warren Buffet's goals are not the same as those of someone who wants to maximize long term returns while also minimizing time and effort spent evaluating investment options.

[lazide]

Not really. It may look that way if all you see is historical averages (and you dollar cost average) but there are definitely times when buying will screw you indefinitely compared to not.

Valuation absolutely matters, and buying when something is overvalued can irrevocably screw you over.

And that is on a broad market basis - individual companies can just flat out go bankrupt and cease to exist.

If you bought in ‘72 or ‘99 for instance, it was a very, very long time before you’d even be able to cash out neutral.

[freedomben]

> If you bought in ‘72 or ‘99 for instance, it was a very, very long time before you’d even be able to cash out neutral.

Agreed, but I would consider those different companies (particularly in '72). When dealing with a small or medium company, the approach is very different and I would very much agree regarding risk of overpriced. However at this point Apple is very blue chip and very different than their startup or almost bankrupt earlier versions of themselves. If Apple were a startup or side-company in the tech industry, I'd have a very different opinion regarding whether they are over-priced or not, and how much risk that would carry.

[lazide]

It sounds like you’re just trying to convince yourself that Apple can only ever go up and to the right - forever?

Which hey, maybe. But that is exceptionally rare in practice.

[freedomben]

That's quite an extreme strawman. I never said that, and I doubt anybody reasonable would agree with that statement.

If it makes you feel better to assume anyone with a different opinion than you must be an unreasonable and uninformed idiot, then by all means go ahead thinking that, but I have little interest in engaging in a bad faith conversation.

[lazide]

Speaking of bad faith conversations…