[aurareturn]

Follow up question: Where in the dotcom bubble is AI in 2024?

Is it already 2000? Or is it in the beginning, 1995? 1998?

For some context, if you invested in Nasdaq in Jan of 1995 and did not sell until September 2001, you'd still be up by 86%. And if you invested at the absolute peak of the bubble, you'd still be up 250% in 2024.

[jsemrau]

I like to compare GPT3 to the 286 Processor and GPT4 to the Pentium chip. There is still a lot that doesn't work but basic tasks can be done. Right now most genAI applications are toys. And a lot still doesn't work text in Stable Diffusion, true reasoning/planning, agents with agency. A lot of demos and evals are optimized for marketing benefit but fail in production systems.

[Integrity]

If most AI businesses are actually API business that call ChatGPT, and people learn that, the hype will start declining.

[aurareturn]

I disagree.

Meta, Anthropic, Google, Mixtral have demonstrated that OpenAI can be caught and matched.

Today, if you have a powerful enough GPU cluster, you can run an internal GPT4-level LLM by deploying Meta's LLama 3.1 405b.

If OpenAI's GPT5 is as big of a leap as GPT3 to GPT4, the hype will reach unprecedented level again in my opinion.

[_heimdall]

> Today, if you have a powerful enough GPU cluster, you can run an internal GPT4-level LLM by deploying Meta's LLama 3.1 405b.

You also have to be willing to consume ungodly amounts of energy to run those GPUs. That seems like an important caveat while the conversation about climate change and unpredictable weather is still top of mind for so many people.

[bilekas]

I hope that’s not a serious questiom because it seems to be in bad faith. It's not answerable or at least if it was we'd all be rich.

[stingraycharles]

I gather what the parent is saying is that it’s better to just keep investing in index funds or equivalents, because it’s impossible to tell where we are, i.e. timing the market.

[throw_pm23]

You would not be up 250% if the companies you invested in went bankrupt.

Perhaps if you invested in Amazon or MS.

[Etheryte]

The parent comment clearly states they're talking about investing in the Nasdaq.