[User23]

The question is dumping for what? If they’re selling treasuries to buy reserves or US equities then they’re still long USD. To actually unwind their dollar position they need a counterparty who wants to buy dollars with a non dollar denominated asset. No doubt they can do that to the tune of a few billions, but who’s the counterparty looking to buy hundreds of billions of dollars that way? The only obvious (to me anyhow) candidate is Japan, but they would both have to overcome some historical baggage to pull off that play. And even then it’s not just a matter of selling. The game changes when you’re big enough to be a marginal price setter.

[chii]

> To actually unwind their dollar position they need a counterparty who wants to buy dollars with a non dollar denominated asset.

why not gold? surely, you can see that china is continuously buying more and more gold reserves.

At some point, china would also be able to convince the global south to start trading in the chinese yuan.

[User23]

> why not gold? surely, you can see that china is continuously buying more and more gold reserves.

I’m not operationally involved with gold markets so take this with a grain of salt, but I wonder if there is enough gold being traded for the market to supply the better part of $1 trillion to a central bank hoard. Markets are adaptable things so I’m not saying it’s impossible, but it sure could get extremely interesting. Enough so that I might have to learn a bit about it and see if I can’t nibble some crumbs that fall off the table.

> At some point, china would also be able to convince the global south to start trading in the chinese yuan.

Agreed. But are the Chinese willing to start running the gargantuan RMB denominated current account deficit that would be required to supply adequate RMB for foreign currency users? Probably not. Instead they will probably try to get foreigners to fund purchases of Chinese exports with Chinese originated RMB denominated debt. It’s going to make the World Bank and IMF look like Santa Claus. I foresee African countries being strip mined for resources just to pay the interest. And, in the end, I don’t see the Indians or other regional economies faring much better.

It really is a shame the US powers that be are running the dollar system into the ground, because while it’s certainly quite imperfect and even exploitative, it’s positively benign to have foreign reserves provided by the issuer’s debt rather than the receiver’s debt.

[blackhawkC17]

> At some point, china would also be able to convince the global south to start trading in the chinese yuan.

It’s a pipe dream to convince people to trade in a currency controlled by an authoritarian and corrupt government.

The global south can yap all they wish, but they still prefer to trade in dollars and euros, the currencies of countries with rule of law.

[chii]

> the currencies of countries with rule of law.

laws which they don't themselves control. For all intents and purposes, the US is as "authoritarian" as the chinese in this aspect. This is even demonstrated, albeit rightly so, by the russian financial sanctions, and currency freezes/seizures.

If you're part of the global south, but is rich enough to have foreign reserves, you will start to think about how to diversify.

[blackhawkC17]

> For all intents and purposes, the US is as "authoritarian" as the chinese in this aspect. This is even demonstrated, albeit rightly so, by the russian financial sanctions, and currency freezes/seizures.

No it isn’t. The reserves were frozen under due process and can be returned under specific conditions, i.e., Russia withdrawing troops from Ukraine. That’s what the rule of law is, unlike China that can seize your Yuan anytime, and there’s no due process to get it back.

> If you're part of the global south, but is rich enough to have foreign reserves, you will start to think about how to diversify.

They’ll still overwhelmingly stick to the dollar, not a currency that operates on the whims of a dictator.