[dayofthedaleks]

I appreciate an abstract that doesn't beat about the bush:

The collapse time is estimated between 2037-2064 (10-90% CI) with a mean of 2050 and the probability of an AMOC collapse before the year 2050 is estimated to be 59 +/- 17%.

We'll miss you, Gulf Stream.

[bendigedig]

The AMOC and the Gulf Stream are two separate systems.

[cube2222]

For those curious, I found this article[0] going into the details, differences, and interactions between them.

TLDR: the Gulf Stream originates from a very different phenomenon than the AMOC and is not at risk of collapse. A small part of the heat transported by the Gulf Stream does originate from the AMOC though, but its collapse would be much less severe than a full collapse of the Gulf Stream.

[0]: https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/gulf-stream-collapse-amoc/

[alkyon]

The Gulf Stream is part of the AMOC.

[candiddevmike]

Wonder how much immigration this will create from northern Europe. AIUI the collapse will make those countries quite chilly.

[huuhee3]

I wonder how the summers would be under this scenario. Cold winters alone wouldn't be such a huge problem, but if food production collapses then we'll be in trouble.

[scheme271]

I think both would be an issue. Most of Europe is pretty far north with the equivalent latitudes in Canada not having much agriculture or people living there frankly. Edinburgh is just slightly south of Juneau so I think any growing season would end up being too short for most crops.

[roughly]

We really, really will.