[Terr_]

To digress a little on the "dumb luck" stuff... Human brains seek patterns and create stories and "find" cause and effect, and that's been extremely useful for us overall... But there are also risks and blind spots.

My favorite example is the humble coin toss. Yet many people joyfully fall into faux-explanations of "hot streaks" or "overdue" outcomes etc., and retain them no matter what statistical evidence you provide.

Even those who consciously reject those ideas still have to bat the intrusive thoughts away, and that's for one of the most well-studied statistically characterizable things out there.