[snakeyjake]

It is true the chances are not equal.

But it's close enough to ∞-1/∞ to not merit further analysis so I chose to round.

Edit: wait, I think that the chance that WE'RE the top level host of quadrillions upon quadrillions of simulations being run in this universe by intelligences beyond our comprehension in trillions of galaxies and the chance that we're a simulation being run in a top level reality are the same. How can they not be?

[punpunia]

Sure but I think infinite here is doing some conceptual heavy lifting and is making a fundamental assumption about how many universes a universe can simulate and to what fidelity. So if we replace infinity with 'a very large number', I think certainty turns into improbability, which feels to be a much weaker "argument".