[keiferski]

For this pattern to continue uninterrupted, it seems to me that you’d need to discount the entire technological revolution that’s happened since the early 19th century. That means the internet, nuclear weapons, automobiles, airplanes, international travel, etc. have had no significant effect on the underlying political structure of human society.

That seems like a hugely unlikely thing to me, and it’s probably more likely that we’ll see something very different and unexpected, not a continuation of the pattern.

For one, I would bet more on regions merging into a single loosely connected political entity than on continued divided states battling it out.

[Satam]

Great point. I think that might be in line with the idea if we take it to its full conclusion. Any way it goes, expect change. The meta mistake is assuming the patterns we've seen in the last 10/50/100/1000 years/etc. will continue.

If one looks at the last 10 years, they assume the market only goes up. If one looks only at the last 50 years, one assumes the US will continue to dominate.

I guess then, what is the mistake if we look only at the last 1000 or 10000 years? Maybe assuming the continued dominance of humans?