[aqsalose]

From abstract (article is paywalled)

>Although modest bivariate associations were detected with educational attainment (r = .17) and body mass index (r = −.17), almost all regression-adjusted coefficients were nonsignificant. No clear pattern of moderation was detected between delay of gratification and either socioeconomic status or sex. Results indicate that Marshmallow Test performance does not reliably predict adult outcomes.

I guess the question is whether the covariates that were adjusted for in the regression are true confounders and not, say, something caused by ability to delay gratification.

[aantthony]

That’s what I thought too. For example if they “control” for factors like IQ or social economic status, then the correlations will be reduced.

This isn’t a surprise unless you think the delay of gratification is itself the cause of success (seems like a straw man so they can claim to “challenge” the original study)

There is more info from one of the authors here which includes the preregistration document: https://x.com/jess_sperber/status/1818100487964496119

Edit: Also, I think the associations of 0.17 prove the title is false