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by btbuildem 692 days ago
The takeaway from this article seems to be: buy crowdstrike shares, because major corps are unable to make any changes, and will continue to pay licensing fees for this "service" for the foreseeable future.
2 comments

This is going to crush their sales pipeline and lead to at least a few attempting a migration off. Crowdstrike is unlikely to go out of business, but this is not a good time to buy.
Safe Harbor: Don't follow random internet commentators opinions on public markets. This is just an opinion and not advice.

I disagree. Long term, the fundamentals of CRWD continue to remain unabated.

Endpoint protection is still a critical need no matter what - for every bug like CRWD, there's always a company you can point to who's operations were shut down due to an attack.

CRWD skimped on QA and customer support, but long term there aren't many other vendors that can provide a similar service, and CRWD is large enough to pull a PANW and M&A into entirely new segments (eg. DSPM with Flow Security, Observability/Data Lake with Humio, ASPM with Bionic) along with greenfield category makers like Charlotte AI for AI Security and AI EDR.

There will be short term pain for CRWD's Windows endpoint business with churn to MDE, SentinelOne, Tanium, etc but they have enough dry powder and a diversified security portfolio that they can safely recover within a year at most.

> crush their sales pipeline

With CRWD sized companies, most of their revenue comes from multi-year contracts and renewals.

They'll probably have a decently large layoff in the sales org, but enterprise sales tends to be fairly stable due to contract sizes along with riders about liability

> They'll probably have a decently large layoff in the sales org

Bingo. That's the buy signal

That depends what sort of timeline you're looking at. I wouldn't be surprised if the price fell more, but the markets are forward looking and long term they're a key player in the space.
SolarWinds comes to mind they haven't fully recovered but they are still around and kicking.
Seems ideal. Get in while the price is discounted relative to the overall market.
Just depends how far the stock falls and at what point it's undervalued.
The lawsuits alone are going to be eyewatering. But sure, buy those shares.
Just spitballing, but I think the lawsuits will take years to come to any conclusion, and in the mean time Crowdstrike will continue to be paid and make a profit. And the conclusion is not really predictable.
Delta airlines is in the headlines saying they had a $500 million impact and have no choice but to sue
Do any of their customers have a case? I'm pretty sure their contracts would cover this kind of outage as an expected eventuality.

A lot of lawsuits are going to be thrown out, I think.

I admire your optimism.