[defrost]

Competitive Olympic swimmers in G20 countries aren't always rocket scientists and brain surgeons ... BUT .. thay are frequently coached by teams that include leading sports scientists with degrees in fluid dynamics | applied mathematics | etc.

Australia, as one example, took swimming (and a few other sports) next level with a plethora of studies on all things performance related.

Any theorectical results from, say, CFD, would be parallel tested in real conditions and|or modelled in a scale pool (like a wind tunnel for water).

Those who competed at that level in sport in the larger countries almost certainly heard first hand bleeding edge results from cutting edge sport science.

[Kon-Peki]

The powerhouse swimming nations (USA, China, Australia, Canada, UK, etc) are so far ahead of everyone else it isn't even close anymore.

My niece was not fast enough to be invited to the trials this year (missed by .03 seconds in her favorite event), but her time would have put her into the second heat in Paris. She's the ~150th fastest person in the USA, but would have come in ~25th place in the Olympics. It's the same situation in China, Australia, Canada, UK, etc.

Most countries only have a small handful of elite swimmers. The power nations can each provide 20-50 swimmers fast enough to get to the semi-finals in every single event. They're analyzing and optimizing for everything. This is why most of the elite swimmers not from these countries go and train in the powerhouse countries. And why the powerhouse countries don't care that they do. I'd bet that 90% of all the medal winners this year do their training in 5 countries.

[toast0]

If she's likely to continue to be fast again in 4 years, it might be time to venue shop her team? Have any connection to other countries not in the top? Even if not, 4 years might be enough time to develop a connection. Being 25th in the Olympics is way cooler than being 150th in the USA, even if they're objectively the same speed. Also, you may need to adjust her speed if the Olympics pool is slower than the trials speed; but still it's way cooler to be any place in the Olympics than 150th faster in the USA --- maybe unless you're in the know for swimming.

Venue shopping might feel ick, but I don't think it's too bad if you're in the competitive envelope, as opposed to what's perhaps a tradition of less then competitive entrants in some events.

[TylerE]

Feels like you're missing a variable here. If your nieces time in a fast pool would be 25th in Paris, that means her time in Paris will be slower than that, because now she's in the slow pool, right?