[owl57]

The lower estimate divided by the number of refunds is (suspiciously?) close to $2000. Do they sell tickets for this much on average or is there some other major cost?

P.S. On the other hand, 176000/7000 ≈ 25 refunds per flight is a bit low. Maybe the average ticket is two-way for a family. Then $2000 is not that much.

[elmerfud]

One thing that's not immediately obvious for passenger planes is that the cost of passenger tickets rarely justify the expense of the flight itself. The movement of cargo on these planes is really what keeps the airline profitable. Losses associated with cargo delay can run the number up very quickly.

Cargo on passenger planes is so profitable that I was on an international flight from Atlanta to Seoul and Delta was literally bumping passengers off the plane so they could carry more cargo. They bumped a ridiculous number of people off the flight for weight savings because the cargo is more profitable than the people.