[Joeboy]

> There won't be the big UBI day, where we make the big switch globally. It's a creeping expansion of social benefits and transfer payments and an easing of work conditions

I agree, in the sense that I think UBI proponents would do better to lobby for that than a big, deus-ex-machina version of UBI. But I don't see it happening "naturally", without a lot of political effort.

[UweSchmidt]

I do see it happening naturally; the very idea that an UBI idea is floating around is a product of the wealth and automation we enjoy. It's a realization that sets in on a broad front, from bullshit jobs, to new generations of products that are not improving much or even regressing, environmental concerns that discourage producing more, massive government budgets squandered ("why not give it to the people who need it?"), and COVID giving people a pause in their respective hamster wheels.

Imagine a technological reset and/or war: Under those circumstances one could still argue for a socialist system of work, but not for people doing nothing getting UBI.

[Joeboy]

Maybe things are different where you live, but it seems like the opposite is happening here (the UK). The State Pension (UBI for old people) is getting further restricted. At least anecdotally, it seems like it's getting harder to claim benefits like Disability Living Allowance or Personal Independence Payments. We introduced additional caps on benefit payments in 2013 and again in 2017. Our new government doesn't show any obvious sign of reversing the trend, and I don't see any popular movement to encourage them to.

[UweSchmidt]

All right, there are certainly other major forces affecting western societies and various scenarios could play out in the future. Let's put our weight behind the movements that would lead to some positive outcomes...