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I don't believe that we are closing in on general intelligence, and I have some ideas as to why. The universe is a chaotic system, the only thing in it that might be deterministic is the universe in totality, but even then we have relativity and everything in it is happening in it's own universe with respect to time. It's like a giant real time distributed system with a speed of light latency. Human made computers are designed to isolate as well as possible determinism, built using the chaotic substrate, the material of the universe which is the universe itself. It's not perfect because you can't entirely isolate any system, so you get bit flips that are caused by the chaos of the universe, but they do pretty good. The brain is evolved, it doesn't care if it's deterministic or not, it only emerged to work properly, whatever that means. Digital computers are designed with a goal in mind, to isolate from the chaos and deliver determinism for practical use. Nothing else in the universe works this way, not brains, not gas giants, nothing is constructed to isolate a deterministic space. I believe that this chaos is where intelligence and consciousness come from, or at the very least that it is a core component of what they are. With deep learning and tensor models and the like, we are attempting to emulate the chaotic nature of a brain on aachine isolated from it's chaotic substrate. Even if you can get something that kind of resembles a mind, you've got massive unnecessary overhead due to this emulation. It's legacy architecture all the way down. And I believe this isolation has it's own impact, an emulated chaotic mind on a digital computer, prevents it from interacting with the world around it fully on the bare metal of the universe, low latency via the API that is direct interaction. Until we decide to scrap the emulation and build a physical architecture specifically for the purpose of generating thought I don't think we will make much headway on general intelligence. Such an architecture in my view can have no abstraction or emulation in it's design, it will have to be entirely analog, less than analog even, like a car cigarette lighter. |