[chuankl]

A meta-comment: whether an advice is good or bad should not be assessed based on a specific outcome.

You can follow a good advice and end up with a bad outcome. Similarly, you can follow a bad advice and end up with a good outcome. This is more obvious in poker (Annie Duke wrote a few books on the topic), but I think the same principle also applies to life in general.

Sure, "I went against this sensible advice and look at what I accomplished!!" makes for good storytelling. But that does not help us decide which advice to follow now and in the future.