[mananaysiempre]

I mean, the two are not necessarily mutually exclusive.

Among those who can apply to the remaining countries, who can bear the increased costs and shortened validity terms of the non-“simplified” process (and of course the usual 2x markup from the “visa center” rackets that consulates are so keen to force on applicants), and who can figure out a way to arrange a trip without access to their domestic bank accounts (no credit cards thanks to Visa/MC, no currency withdrawals thanks to Putin) or other cheap ways to get foreign currency (good luck figuring out travel medical insurance), the acceptance rates might well be the same as among everybody who went abroad previously.

I don’t know that that’s true, but it would not exactly strain the imagination. It just doesn’t mean what GP appears to imply it means.

[surfingdino]

Recent Russian regulation automatically closes their domestic bank accounts on the grounds of their internal passports expiring. You can only renew them from inside Russia.

[rasdbiouqwb-123]

Internal Russian passport "expires" three times during lifetime. For most of the adulthood it's not an issue

[mananaysiempre]

Unfortunately, one of these times is at 20, which can be a serious problem for those evading conscription. There have also been recent developments where opposition figures’ passports are cancelled as a persecution measure[1], but it’s too early to tell how widespread it’s going to be.

[1] https://www.currenttime.tv/a/pasporta-rossiyan-za-granitsey-... (in Russian; for reference, Current Time is a US-funded collaboration between Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and Voice of America)