[cageface]

It seems increasingly likely to me that we're going to see the standard sci-fi script flipped. Instead of AI and robots doing grunt work for humans, AI will be doing most of the decision making, perhaps guided by a small human elite, and humans will do most of the grunt work.

Making machines that think will turn out to be a lot cheaper and easier than building machines that can do general purpose physical work. People are cheap to make and maintain, especially if you're not very concerned with their well-being.

[eru]

People are pretty expensive.

So far we have automated more and more, including and especially grunt work.

Why would grunt work come back?

Especially if you have machines that can help you design more efficient machines, and can help you re-design production processes to be more efficient and amenable to further automation.

[cageface]

People in first world countries, with education, health care, good housing etc are expensive.

If you're willing to deny them all that then they're cheap and easy to replace.

Whereas building a machine that can do even the basics of what a human hand can do is quite expensive.

[eru]

> If you're willing to deny them all that then they're cheap and easy to replace.

It's not about what the employer is willing to do, it's about what people are willing to accept; especially if there's competition for their services.

> Whereas building a machine that can do even the basics of what a human hand can do is quite expensive.

We even have robots that can wash dishes, and they are cheap enough to be in a substantial proportion of households. There's lots of of basics and not so basics that we automated.

Of course, build a machine that can do _all_ the basics of a human hand is expensive (at least so far). But people can and have arranged their business processes around these limitations: you don't expect your welding robots to wash dishes; you use a dishwasher for that.

[cageface]

I take it you've never lived in a developing country? People there don't have much bargaining power.

For example, when I lived in Vietnam I'd often see a road crew of ten people with shovels because it was cheaper than hiring one backhoe. A washing machine would be an unimaginable luxury for all of them.

[eru]

I grew up in (now former) East Germany, and the autobiography of the first leader of my adopted home is literally called 'From Third World to First'.

Though I'm not sure what you are trying to say? I guess you are agreeing with me? Yes, if there are many companies that compete for your services and can put them to productive use, you have a lot of bargaining power in those negotiations. Conversely, where those options are lacking, you have less bargaining power.

Yes, Vietnam started from a fairly low base, but has seen phenomenal growth in the last few decades. See eg https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PPPPC@WEO/VNM?zoom=V... You can bet your hat that workers' absolute bargaining power has improved by leaps and bounds.

As a consequence, at https://tradingeconomics.com/vietnam/wages you can see how average Vietnamese wages have exploded over time. (Even if their data only goes back to 2011, the growth is still very impressive.)

Apparently washing machines are a real growth segment in Vietnam: https://www.statista.com/outlook/cmo/household-appliances/ma...

These days around 58% of households in Vietnam have a washing machine.

Yes, in general many people around the world used to be dirt poor. And while things have improved, many of these people merely graduated from 'dirt poor' to 'poor'. But that's still progress, and we are continuing to advance. To future generations, even our richest people alive today will look poor by comparison.

[cageface]

I lived in Vietnam for eight years, speak the language fluently, and have traveled through almost every part of the country No need to quote statistics at me, especially a completely ludicrous claim that 58% of households have a washing machine. Only someone that doesn’t know the country at all would believe that. Many people just barely got access to reliable electricity.

I’d like to agree with your final assessment but assuming that the growth arc of the last 50 years is going to continue requires a lot of optimism.