[jiggy2011]

Possibly, a few issues though:

Hardware is getting cheaper , for example the $25 raspberry pi computer. It will become likely that peripherals like the screen , case and keyboard will be more expensive than the actual computer itself (especially if the CPU etc are smartphone grade stuff).

If you have additional hardware inside your phone that is unlocked only when it is plugged into a docking station, then why are you carrying that extra hardware around in your pocket the whole time? Why not just put a very fast GPU inside the docking station for example and have some sort of high speed bus.

If you are making 2 versions of the same application with different UIs then that is really very similar to making 2 applications. Sure you can do a lot of code re-use, but this is possible anyway even when you are programming for separate devices.

Portable things like phones get easily lost of broken, imagine losing your smartphone and being basically unable to do anything until you replace it because there is no such thing as a "fat terminal" anymore.

Businesses are probably going to prefer bolted down systems (physically and in terms of software) that employees do not take home with them.

The internet makes this sort of a moot issue anyway, because if most of your applications are SaaS and all of your data is stored on a server anyway then anything with a web browser can become a dumb terminal, there is no need for your own hardware.

[Casc]

I don't think all applications will work cross dock.. Some sure, all no.

And in regards to housing the GPU inside dock, thats exactly what I was thinking. I believe you may have missed:

"Once docked, a smartphone can unlock additional cores that would otherwise consume too much power, activate a more powerful GPU, possibly one even housed in the docking station itself..."

[jiggy2011]

I missed the part about the docking station and assumed you meant inside the phone, sorry.

Once you have put the GPU inside the docking station though, people will start to say "hmm, why not put a faster CPU in there too" "oh, and a bigger SSD so we can cache more stuff" at which point the phone starts to become redundant.

As with all of these things , I imagine it will be cyclical.

[Casc]

Sure,

I would think of the phone as your identity... your data, your apps, your storage... That's what makes the difference.

Further, I don't forsee all applications working cross dock.. Some sure, all no.

RE your earlier point on the workplace - The smartphone could always act as a key/SSO type device, and you can only access certain information when docked in a certain environment, within a VPN, etc.

Basically this thing becomes your identity.. if you lose it, yep you're SOL. Thank god for remote wipe? With hardware becoming cheaper as you say, and cloud storage, get a new one, sync and go on your way.

I agree with your point on redundancy until you want an ipod/camera/phone/mobile apps... You're already carrying it around... why not make laptops/desktops/tablets a hollow extension of the computer in your pocket?

I don't think it's about the hardware as much as the interactive storage, the effort that goes into maintaining your data, apps, life... the things iCloud and dropbox try to solve, and while they can still serve their purpose aren't quite right in terms of a truly portable lifestyle.

[jiggy2011]

It really depends how much of storage/apps are moved to the cloud.

The way I imagine it evolving is more that the local storage on client side devices is used as a cache for commonly used files + code and the apps and files themselves live in the "cloud", so with a fast enough internet connection using a standalone device is indistinguishable from docking your phone. Now that cloud may be a generic cloud like dropbox/aws etc or it may be something specific that is hosted and run by the workplace.

The issue with having a completely dumb clamshell is that the screen and keyboard will be worth more than the computing hardware. Let's say the clamshell costs $250 without any brains but basic brains can be added for an extra $30 or so. There is actually a lot of utility in having independant brains on the laptop.

For example if I got out with my phone , I can give the laptop to someone else to use. Or what if I want to use my phone at the same time as I want to use the laptop? In this case you will be stretching the hardware to run 2 displays at once (with different apps, as well as having 2 complete UI systems loaded into memory) as well as the physical docking being an issue. For example what if I am talking on my phone and I want to walk to the other side of the room without dragging the laptop along or undocking it?

Having everything dependent on a small , easily lose able device is a biggie too. Replacing your phone is likely to be expensive (since it has a display etc) and essentially losing access to computing because you are too broke to replace your phone until your next payday is a big issue.

[vidarh]

> For example if I got out with my phone , I can give the laptop to someone else to use.

That someone else has a smartphone, or will have one soon. Why would you want them to have a device with your data on it, and without their apps and their data, when they could otherwise just press a button and get up their desktop the exact way they left it.

> Or what if I want to use my phone at the same time as I want to use the laptop? In this case you will be stretching the hardware to run 2 displays at once (with different apps, as well as having 2 complete UI systems loaded into memory)

So what? Current generation phones can do that. Some Android devices can operate their main device and feed a 2160p display at the same time.

> as well as the physical docking being an issue. For example what if I am talking on my phone and I want to walk to the other side of the room without dragging the laptop along or undocking it?

Why? "Wireless HDMI" (in quotes because there's not yet a single standard) is here. Docking, via standard cables is optional, with the main benefit being charging, which you can do via micro-usb on my devices. I have about 10 micro-USB charging slots at home and 4 at work already, because it's trivially cheap and convenient.

I already walk upstairs while listening to music on my bluetooth headset and not bothering to bring my phone with me, or indeed because I'm charging it. Why would this change?

> Having everything dependent on a small , easily lose able device is a biggie too.

Why? We have cloud services and small, cheap NAS devices, don't we? So surely it's all sync'd and the only issue is the replacement cost.

> Replacing your phone is likely to be expensive (since it has a display etc) and essentially losing access to computing because you are too broke to replace your phone until your next payday is a big issue.

Those who can't afford a low level smartphone or tablet are not more likely to be able to afford it if you split it into a phone and an actual laptop.

As for being "expensive" that is of course subjective, but there are a tone of sub $100 Android devices out there that are already more than capable enough for a lot of users.

[Casc]

I see where you're coming from. I agree it definitely depends on how much moves to the cloud, could something like this have the potential to affect that? If pulled off correctly, I'd think so. I'm not convinced the cloud is the place for everything.

In terms of phone... bluetooth headset paired to docking station!

Yea losing the phone comes at quite a price, I agree. Personally, I'd pay for it.

C'mon, you can't pretend this thing wouldn't be bad ass if it was pulled off properly.

[jiggy2011]

The lowest friction solution always has a big advantage. Under your solution I have to take a dumb laptop , a smartphone and a bluetooth headset with me everywhere and hook them all up together whenever I want to sit down and do something, bluetooth headsets are particularly cumbersome compared to putting a phone to your ear, not to mention that they make a lot of people feel dumb to wear.

A "cloud" solution that is fast and smooth enough will replicate the functionality of having one "mega device" without the drawbacks.

I actually think that the cloud will become the place for everything for a conceptual point of view. If you are concerned about privacy etc it will be possible to run your own personal cloud out of a tiny PC in the corner of your home.

Some concessions will have to be made for offline use of course (which I guess will become increasingly rare). Really though it makes more sense to think of your devices as an extension of your "cloud" rather than the other way around.

[jerf]

The driving force here is that the phone does need to be capable of being an independent computing unit, so that tends to force things onto the phone. A new GPU and CPU etc may be nice, but for most people won't be necessary, and I suspect your average clamshell simply won't have it. I think the general case will be dumb clamshell with nothing but peripherals, USB ports, and a battery. The alternative is significantly more expensive, yet brings the average user no benefit. (Possibly negative if its less reliable.)

A clamshell that does have everything in it will simply be a laptop, and laptops will continue to outclass phones in raw performance for a good long time. (The presence of additional, usable volume will continue to be an advantage for a good long time yet, and by volume I mean literally three-dimensional space.)

[jiggy2011]

I don't think it would be much more expensive, considering the raspberry pi project managed to make a complete computer for $25.

I guess we will see both options and the market will sort it out, it's basically a case between having one "do it all" system vs 2 specialized systems.

Historically though, things such as laptop docking stations and laptops with detachable tablets have never really taken off and I imagine this could be a case of the same.

[vidarh]

But the point is if you're ok with a Rasperry Pi class computer, why not just put it in the phone? And indeed, the Pi is outclassed in performance by pretty much every Android device in existence.

You're already carrying your phone with you. There might be some value in a "shell" with a Raspberry Pi level computer in it, but in that case I think you'd see the opposite happen to what you're suggesting: The shell using the phone for additional computer power when present, and the Pi class computer simply being a way of offering very basic dumb terminal capabilities when no superior computing device is present.

> Historically though, things such as laptop docking stations and laptops with detachable tablets have never really taken off and I imagine this could be a case of the same.

Historically, laptop docking stations were a big deal for businesses, and "laptops with detachable tablets" are where the tablets were/are actually usable is a very new thing. I don't think you can draw any conclusions from that.

[jerf]

When consumers are aggressively searching for the lowest price, and in general lack the sophistication to tell what the performance is, you generally end up in a situation where even a buck or two can be the difference between a product that sells and doesn't. Sometimes the sophisticated option can be squeezed right out when the masses can't tell the difference... ask me how I feel about the inability to buy anything but TFT screens in a laptop sometime.

[jiggy2011]

That is true, people often have crappy taste when it comes to quality (or just low budgets). However I think there is a big difference between buying "a laptop" and "a laptop that doesn't do anything unless you plug a phone into it".

[Casc]

Look at the iPad.

Tablets never took off before Apple did it right, with a similar look and feel as other apple products.

It's all about the experience.

[Simucal]

To me, the phones primary purpose in this scenario is to maintain state.

I can be working at home and instantly sleep my "phone-computer", slip it in my pocket and then resume right where I left off when I arrive at work by re-docking it.

[dmragone]

Exactly! Even now I'm annoyed that I have to type on my iPhone keyboard when I'm sitting at my computer and someone sends me a text. Would infinitely prefer that when I'm in proximity of my computer and logged in that the phone functionality was available in the computer's OS and on screen.

And then being able to get up and carry what I was doing on my computer wherever I go would be the next step.

[jiggy2011]

Wouldn't it be simple enough to write an app for your phone that would check if it was connected to your "home" wifi and then upload incoming sms messages to your desktop/laptop.

The phone app could wait for you to type a reply on your PC which is then sent back to the phone and then the phone would send it.

I'd be amazed if something like this does not exist.

[MartinodF]

AirDroid is a pretty good start: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.sand.airdr.... It lets you manage most of the phone functionality from your desktop.

[vidarh]

But that only solves a narrow sliver of what he wanted.

[Casc]

You got it.

And enjoy some media / regular mobile experience in the interim.

[vidarh]

> If you have additional hardware inside your phone that is unlocked only when it is plugged into a docking station, then why are you carrying that extra hardware around in your pocket the whole time? Why not just put a very fast GPU inside the docking station for example and have some sort of high speed bus.

Why are you assuming only? Only when it's charging, perhaps. Or only when you're using something heavy duty enough to benefit.

There are already 5 core Android devices out there with 4 fast cores and one slow, low clocked, low power core, that can step all the way fro using 4 fast cores to only the low power core when there's no demand for it.

That give you the flexibility to wireless stream (there are devices with "wireless HDMI" support around already) a complex UI to the flat screen in your living room, or the laptop shell, or just play a demanding 3D game on the go, and suck battery accordingly, or switch it all off.

Why would you want to pay for multiple extra CPU's and GPU's to avoid carrying around something smaller and lighter than a stamp, when your phone would need a decent CPU and GPU anyway?

> Portable things like phones get easily lost of broken, imagine losing your smartphone and being basically unable to do anything until you replace it because there is no such thing as a "fat terminal" anymore.

I didn't see him claim there would be no such thing, just that smart phones and "dumb" companions would be "the future" in the sense that it's what most people use. And as you've pointed out: Low end hardware is cheap. If we get to this world, there's no reason you wouldn't be able to pick up a basic pocket computer / smartphone in your local corner shop for a tenner as a temporary measure - the cheapest android tablets are already pushing their way down towards the low double digits.

> Businesses are probably going to prefer bolted down systems (physically and in terms of software) that employees do not take home with them.

I'm sure some do, but in the last 10 years, I've never worked anywhere where they cared. Of course there'll be a market for other solutions too for those that do care, but I think you'll see things converge. Few places buy big desktops any more. They are shrinking. They will shrink further.. The main thing here is that we're moving towards a situation where mobility or not is decided by policy and need rather than practicality of actually moving the hardware and whether it's designed as a phone or intended for more permanent infrastructure.

> The internet makes this sort of a moot issue anyway, because if most of your applications are SaaS and all of your data is stored on a server anyway then anything with a web browser can become a dumb terminal, there is no need for your own hardware.

There are several problems with this:

1) We are very far away from universal connectivity. I commute through densely populated parts of London, and yet I lose my internet connection several times during the journey. Never mind more remote locations. When computing power is getting as cheap as it is, it becomes pointless to rely only on dumb terminals.

2) Latency. For some things it doesn't matter, but for lots it does. Try going on vacation to China if your data is stored in Europe, and if you're "lucky" enjoy the extra latency of your data going through the US. We're far from a situation where our networks are even remotely as good as they can get, but even if they were, there's that pesky issue of the speed of light, which actually will matter if you travel. Won't affect everyone, but it does mean we can't go al dumb terminal.

3) The emotional need for control of data whether the reasons are sound or not. Personally, I'm clawing my data back: I sign up only for services where I can backup my data to my personal server, because I've seen enough seemingly stable companies fail, or change in ways detrimental to their users.

4) People want access on the go. So we will already be carrying at least one device with us. If computing power is cheap, there's no reason to not make use of it to solve the above three issues. And conversely: Cloud services make it cheaper. If I was to dispense with my laptop, I'd need my phone to have about a TB of storage. If I am to dispense with my home server, it needs about 6TB of storage. And that is now, when my movie collection doesn't have a single Blu Ray in it, never mind 2160p 3D movies. But if I can put a small NAS in the corner and/or sign up with a cloud service, it only needs to store enough for those times when connectivity isn't great, so the threshold where I can make my phone my primary computer is significantly lowered.