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by jfengel 714 days ago
That's... aggravating.

It's not a day late and a dollar short. It's 30 years late and tens of trillions of dollars short.

Actual climate scientists were warning about the dangers at 1.5C, and had been since the 80s. Now 1.5C is actually here.

So I feel like this needs more than just a "whoops, changed my mind". This needs a "Hey, turns out that maybe physicists don't know everything, and maybe when in doubt we should defer to the people who actually study the field".

Hossenfelder is very smart and (at least within her field) very well qualified. But she seems to like perceiving herself as a gadfly, choosing contrarian positions, usually without being in a position to be proven wrong. In this case she was very wrong, and everybody who actually knew the domain told her that.

I don't need a mea culpa about it. It's not like she was a really important force in climate denial. But changing her mind now isn't really helpful -- and it seems like she rarely has any desire to make an actual contribution.