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by toomuchtodo 711 days ago
What happens next is Japan, in different shades per each culture and nation. I understand this prediction is bold, and fraught with peril considering the time horizon (difficulty of prediction success increases as time horizon does), but the evidence and data so far is compelling imho.

The slow deflationary burn is over the crest of the hill we’re approaching. A very interesting time to be alive for sure.

1 comments

With such a big over-supply of housing, I'm expecting China's real estate to perform much worse than Japan's did. But, it seems pretty crazy - the most populous country on earth, won't need to build a single home, for the forseable future.
> the most populous country on earth, won't need to build a single home, for the forseable future.

This is probably not the case.

There are whole cities in the middle of no where with no prospects or jobs that are stuffed with tons of housing. There is also a small problem with the quality of some of these buildings (tofu dregs).

Im not sure how much of it is going to be there in 10 years...