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by aurareturn
718 days ago
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I don't think anyone thought it was super intelligence. I think it's impressive that we went from LLMs not being useful at all to GPT3.5 shocking the world to GPT4 becoming super useful for many things in around 7 months time. LLM progress have slowed down a bit. But I think we're just getting started. It's still really early. It's only been 1 year since GPT4 came out. Even at the level of GPT4, scaling it would have immense benefits. But my sense is that we'll have a few more levels of great leaps in LLM capabilities that will shock people in the next 3-4 years. |
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I'm referring to the OpenAI white paper on GPT4 that shows exam results. https://cdn.openai.com/papers/gpt-4.pdf figure 4, and surrounding text.
Clearly not superintelligence, as I would define it (see my other comment about scientific discovery, which I consider the best test), but these are tests actual humans take, and we know how most humans would score on these tests (thru some amount of memorization, along with parsing word problems and doing some amount of calculation). But many people who looked at the testing results concluded that GPT-4 was actually a reasoning agent, or that reasoning agents were just around the corner.
The press picked up on that, and my LinkedIn stream was absolutely filled with second-class influencers who thought that superhuman capabilities were not far away. For a while there, looking at some of the test results specifically on moderately challenging math problems, I suspected that LLMs had some sort of reasoning ability.