[jzemeocala]

Hmmm.... I wonder if someone has finally cracked RSA or its friends.

I also remember a conspiracy theory that Bitcoin was actually made as a litmus test to know if\when someone somewhere achieves quantum supremacy (because then they would be able to crack the block....or something like that

[QuantumAlex]

Best estimate I know of for cracking an interesting RSA (2048 bit) is 8 hr and 20,000,000 superconducting (physical) qubits with error rates ~ 0.1% [1].

This seems super premature.

[1] https://quantum-journal.org/papers/q-2021-04-15-433/

[Hizonner]

I would put a fairly large wager on it just being bureaucratic dumbassitosity, and give you odds.

[sandworm101]

The NSA and their ilk would not have waited for AES to be broken. They would move to ban these things in response to theoretical albeit confident assessment of the risk.

[refulgentis]

Hmm, that doesn't sound right to my ear.

They've loudly assumed it is possible.

c.f. Their focus has been on incentivizing private actors to do post-quantum algorithms, yesterday.

c.f. most recently, https://blog.chromium.org/2024/05/advancing-our-amazing-bet-...

Do you have more info on why they'd ban import of it? Seems like an obviously wrong strategy to combat it.

[alwa]

Aren’t these export controls rather than import controls? That is, if a company in their bloc does succeed at developing cryptographically-relevant quantum computers, they’d just as soon that company not sell that tech on to the adversary?

As you said, they’ve loudly assumed it’s possible—so wouldn’t it make sense for them to draw a line in the sand now, before the horse has bolted, to indicate where the “now it’s a national security matter” threshold lies?

[davidgerard]

there was some crazy around bitcoin and quantum, led by Vitalik Buterin when he was young and foolish https://davidgerard.co.uk/blockchain/buterins-quantum-quest/