[marcosdumay]

To the extent that have been expert estimates out there, they do have been consistently wrong. The same happens to solar and wind generation.

But well, I haven't seen any that don't have a conflict of interest into claiming fossil fuels will continue to be required. And that's a large part of the problem: you just won't find uninterested experts publishing estimates.

[XorNot]

Well the other issue though is that people looking for predictions want conservative predictions because they're investing. Over-estimate and you lose money, under-estimate and you leave money on the table but don't trade away future possible gains.

[marcosdumay]

Hum... People investing in renewables and batteries do not use predictions. Those have at most some 3 years of building time, usually a few months.

People investing in fossil fuel plants need predictions, and despite they wanting to see conservative numbers, that bias means complete doom for them. They need the opposite bias if they want to survive.

Things get a lot more complex once you start to look at components industries. But then, it's not clear they use predictions for anything.