| The answer is when the market turns - from going up or steady, to down. If they can. The big issue with rents right now IMO, is that commercial real estate typically has short length adjustable rate (or even ballon) financing, which causes catastrophic problems when you have a combination of: + rising vacancies and/or decreasing rents (aka reduced cash flow) + increasing finance costs. Which is common when we enter a recession due to increasing borrowing costs. The landlord either has to burn their free cash hoping for a recovery, or default. If it’s a short period of time, the first can happen. If it’s a fake out, then they’re left with no cash and still go bankrupt - so then need to liquidate, but it’s often when a bunch of other folks are doing the same, so prices go through the floor and it’s a bloodbath for existing investors. And since the low interest rate environment was going on so long (with QE even!) almost everyone was leveraged to the gills on cheap credit, often to the point they had little to no free cash flow even at that point. It wasn’t just commercial of course - residential properties stopped having positive cash flow in some cases nearly a decade ago, but still kept going up. Residential financing offers more opportunities to insulate oneself from this kind of crazy though. It happens normally of course due to the business cycle, but this has been an exceptionally long time without real monetary tightening (since well before ‘08), so the overhang is bigger. It’s why all those dead malls are still sitting there. So, in the fashion of wil-e-coyote off the cliff, no one wants to look down. Because it’s a long way down. |