[anovikov]

No. We never will. Simply ran out of time. Electricity will be provided fully by renewables only in EU and China in a timeframe shorter than it takes to build a new nuclear reactor of already well-debugged type, from scratch - let alone a thermonuclear one for which no designs exist. We are speaking 2035-2040 to fully get rid of fossil fuels in electricity grid, and 2030-2035 before they are reduced to low (10-20%) levels.

It took 12 years to build first unit of Belarusian NPP - of a type that's been built by the dozen for decades, and in a country where all-powerful government controls and owns everything, there is no NIMBY or the "society" thing in the Western understanding at all, and where if you try to protest you just disappear. Can't be done faster. By 2036, fossil fuel electricity will be a thing of the past in some places, and quickly disappearing in all others.

[defrost]

In reality electricity in China will NOT "be provided fully by renewables".

    The country's current fleet stands at 56 reactors. China expects to build 6 to 8 new nuclear power plants each year for the foreseeable future and is projected to pass the U.S. in nuclear-generated electricity by 2030. In total, China intends to build a total of 150 new nuclear reactors between 2020 and 2035.

China has an impressive expansion of solar. That's a fact.

China is also expanding coal power stations (while closing older shitty coal stations) to provide base energy for its planned and ongoing expansion of both solar and nuclear.

Currently something of the order of 60% of the energy requirement of building solar (for local use and for global supply) in China comes directly from coal power.

I'm all for renewables, it's the sensible direction.

I'm also big on factual statements.

[anovikov]

Well ok, in 10-15 years all fossil and nuclear electricity in China will be a drop in the bucket. They will probably be commissioning a terawatt per year of solar by then, or more.