[mason55]

I don’t think they’re independent events. Bayesian priors would say that if you have five failed businesses then your chances of being successful on number 6 are probably less than 60%

[dangus]

I disagree. A bunch of founders out there have a string of failures surrounded by their successes.

Here is a list of a few of them: https://press.farm/startups-fail-founders-bounced-back-and-b...

Some of these founders had two or more failed businesses before reaching success.