[muzani]

What we did was compare it to the previous peak, and then 1.1x that or so. That works well for trading breakthrough patterns.

If you're going long term, then it's quite different because there may never really be a peak. There might be corrections or something every now and then, but they whole idea behind long term is that these don't matter.

I would actually tie it to the other two - you'd have to detect when a stock is overpriced, and you'd have to detect catalysts.

Still tough. Meta sunk on their rebranding not so much because of the metaverse but because FB had been dead for a while. But the announcement was the catalyst. If Meta had been underpriced, it would have been a positive catalyst and people would have applauded the metaverse. Which would probably have triggered catalysts on RBLX, MSFT, and other metaverse players.

NVDA had been underpriced for a while, and the multiple catalysts have made it shoot up, though it's possible another one in the future could make it crash.

So IMO it's not just one point, the other detectors also help to filter the noise.