[sundiver]

What I couldn't see, or what wasn't mentioned, is the imminent collapse of the Gulf Stream. I had read that this would paradoxically lead to a "new ice age" for Western and Northern Europe in the next 100 years. Is this scenario ruled out by science after all, or is it simply not taken into account here?

[Daishiman]

It would be such a drastic change that it appears to be beyond our ability to model, as we lack the empirical data to make any accurate prediction.

[Retric]

A full collapse of the Gulf Stream is not going to happen. Change is going to happen here, but it’s more complicated than a simple collapse

Why do headlines say otherwise? It’s due to an oversimplification of the currents that drive global climate. People conflate the Gulf Stream with a more complex system of currents known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC.

…

But even if the deep-water portion of the AMOC did shut down, the Gulf Stream would continue to flow. As noted by MIT physical oceanography professor Carl Wunsch in 2004, “The only way to produce an ocean circulation without a Gulf Stream is either to turn off the wind system, or to stop the Earth's rotation, or both.” Neither will happen, even in the most extreme climate change scenarios.

https://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/feature/will-the-gulf-stream-re...

[layer8]

There are contradictory scientific assessments regarding the likelihood and timing of a collapse.