| Can it be both overhyped and revolutionary? This may actually fit the technical definition of a bubble. There is a good book called "Bubbles and Crashes" that talks about tech bubbles. I think the traditional definition of a bubble is when the price of an asset exceeds its fundamental value. Thats effectively impossible to know (during the bubble) because we can't predict the future but there are other ways to more practically look at bubbles even if you may be in the middle of one. If an asset is more than 2 standard deviations from the trend of the last 7 years, if there are a lot of novice investors effectively 'speculating', and having a 'narrative' that explains the odd 'non-fundamentals based' valuations. At least thats the definition they use in the book iirc. Thats definitely happening right now. There is also this obnoxious wall street/silicon valley hype train surrounding all of it-- which is by design. This is exactly what these companies want: a huge digital gold rush so they can try their hand at panning for gold using investor money. They try it with any new tech or buzzword they can because it brings in money. Its unfortunate because this technology feels revolutionary. This feels like the internet did to me as a kid. It wasn't all great. It wasn't perfect. But it was cool and there was something special about it. There are these new tools and services that all do slightly different things and when you combined them you could create really amazing things. AI feels that way. I'm not just talking LLMs either. I think those are impressive and useful, but there is so much else going on in the AI/ML space that can already really move the needle--and this is the worst it will ever be. I hate the comparisons to Bitcoin/block chain. They are being made because that same obnoxious wall street/silicon valley hype-model was at play there too, but I think anyone who was honest with themselves knew there were severe limitations with the tech and its usefulness. AI tools actually provide value, right now, and has a lot of room to grow. But back to the hype and "Bubble" question. I think its overhyped because thats whats what silicon valley is good at and wall street is good and amplifying it (and punishing anyone not riding the wave). We probably are in a bubble, but AI is here to stay. Its a new frontier of computing and its going to unlock new and interesting ways to interact with each other and the world around us. I also want to point out that AR is a perfect complement for all of the AI/ML tools that have been developed. The Meta Ray Bans are really interesting to me because they are marrying the two techs. I dont trust Facebook with that type of thing, but imagine if a privacy respecting company tried something like that? Apple is setting themselves up nicely in this space. They could create a new market with iGlass or Apple Vision with "apple intelligence" built in. This is the most excited I've been about tech in a long while. |