|
Meanwhile, in real world, non-zero: Today, coal generates over 60% of the electricity used for global solar PV manufacturing, [...].
This is largely because PV production is concentrated in China – mainly in the provinces of Xinjiang and Jiangsu where coal accounts for more than 75% of the annual power supply and benefits from favourable government tariffs.
that said: Continuous innovation led by China has halved the emissions intensity of solar PV manufacturing since 2011.
This is the result of more efficient use of materials and energy – and greater low-carbon electricity production.
Despite these improvements, absolute carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from solar PV manufacturing have almost quadrupled worldwide since 2011 as production in China has expanded.
and there's a bit of a bottleneck: Based on manufacturing capacity under construction, China’s share of global polysilicon, ingot and wafer production will soon reach almost 95%.
Today, China’s Xinjiang province accounts for 40% global polysilicon manufacturing. Moreover, one out of every seven panels produced worldwide is manufactured by a single facility.
This level of concentration in any global supply chain would represent a considerable vulnerability; solar PV is no exception.
We're talking billions of tonnes of raw materials here to meet decadal global demands, and it simply isn't just sand (and remember that really good sand is a resource in demand also): Solar PV’s demand for critical minerals will increase rapidly in a pathway to net zero emissions.
The production of many key minerals used in PV is highly concentrated, with China playing a dominant role.
Despite improvements in using materials more efficiently, the PV industry’s demand for minerals is set to expand significantly.
In the IEA’s Roadmap to Net Zero Emissions by 2050, for instance, demand for silver for solar PV manufacturing in 2030 could exceed 30% of total global silver production in 2020 – up from about 10% today.
This rapid growth, combined with long lead times for mining projects, increases the risk of supply and demand mismatches, which can lead to cost increases and supply shortages.
https://www.iea.org/reports/solar-pv-global-supply-chains/ex... |
That would be bad except:
a) production has increased by more than 10x in the same time period.
b) solar panels added to the energy mix pull down the average carbon and quickly pay back their manufacture
which means it's just a sensible investment in an incredibly low carbon and cheap energy source which has gotten even more incredibly low carbon and cheap over time.