[pyrale]

By 2034, it will be at 100%.

By 2045, the earth will be covered by solar panels so we will start tiling Mars.

According to projections, the Dyson Sphere should be completed by 2117. Exponential curves are a hell of a drug.

> I don't trust the exponential trends to not be secret sigmoids past that point.

The thing is that predicting the cap is as important as predicting the inflection point. 100% solar (or renewables) isn't possible without other technologies which are much less developed, consumer pattern changes which have yet to emerge and grid investments which are not priced in current PV deployment.

[ben_w]

> without other technologies which are much less developed

Sure, but the factories to make batteries are also being rolled out pretty quickly.

> and grid investments which are not priced in current PV deployment.

Which are necessary even without renewables, because of their age in the west and increased demand everywhere else.

[pfdietz]

Batteries get developed anyway due to EVs. Replacing all 283 M motor vehicles in the US with Teslas would require enough batteries for about 40 hours of storage of the average power flow on the US grid.